IU's NCAA chances

So Kravitz says:

One more, and the Hoosiers should be in.

Okay, let's play with this scenario. IU loses to Wisconsin, beats Northwestern and loses the 4-5 game to Minnesota. That leaves them at 15-13, 10-6 in the B10. A tough schedule no doubt, but only 2 quality wins over top 50 RPI teams. Both were home against MSU and Wisconsin. Now compare that with other NCAA bound teams. You tell me who IU should get in over.

Current Bracketology Predictions from ESPN:
#1 Seeds
1)Illinois 28-0
2) Kentucky 22-3
3) North Carolina 24-3
4) Wake Forest 24-4
#2 Seeds
5) Boston College 23-3
6) Oklahoma St 19-5
7) Duke 21-4
8) Kansas 21-4
#3 Seeds
9) Washington 22-4
10) UCONN 19-6
11) Arizona 24-5
12) Louisville 22-4
#4 Seeds
13) Michigan State 20-5
14) Oklahoma 21-6
15) Syracuse 24-5
16) Gonzaga 22-4
#5 Seeds
17) Alabama 20-6
18) Villanova 19-6
19) Utah 22-4
20) Charlotte 21-4
#6 Seeds
21) Cincinnati 22-6
22) Pacific 23-2
23) Wisconsin 18-7
24) Southern Ill 23-6
#7 Seeds
25) Pittsburgh 18-7
26) LSU 17-8
27) Texas Tech 17-8
28) Florida 18-7
#8 Seeds
29) Texas 18-8
30) Nevada 21-5
31) Depaul 18-7
32) Stanford 16-10
#9 Seeds
33) Notre Dame 16-9
34) UCLA 16-9
35) Georgia Tech 16-9
36) Maryland 16-10
#10 Seeds
37) Georgetown 16-9
38) St. Mary's 21-7
39) Mississippi State 20-8
40) George Washington 18-6
#11 Seeds
41) Wichita State 19-7
42) Minnesota 19-9
43) UTEP 21-7
44) Iowa State 15-10
#12 Seeds
45) West Virginia 18-8
46) Miami Ohio 16-8 MAC
47) Buffalo 18-7
48) Vermont 21-6 America East
#13 Seeds
49) Wis-Milw. 20-5 Horizon
50) Holy Cross 22-5 Patriot
51) Old Dominion 24-5 CAA
52) Penn 17-8 Ivy
#14 Seeds
53) Davidson 17-7 Southern
54) Denver 16-9 Sun Belt
55) Oral Roberts 21-6 Mid Con
56) St Josephs 15-10 A10
#15 Seeds
57) UCF 18-8 Atl Sun
58) Niagra 18-9 MAAC
59) Winthrop 21-5 Big South
60) Tennessee Tech 14-10 OVC
#16 Seeds
61) Portland State 17-8 Big Sky
62) SE Louisiana 15-7 Southland
63) F. Dickinson 16-11 Northeast
64 and 65 Play in Game teams... nice for them, but not competition for IU's spot.

The top 9 seeds should be locks. So IU's competition is going to come from the #10, 11 and 12 seeds:
#10 Seeds
37) Georgetown 16-9 W @ Pitt, W ND, W @Villanova,
38) St. Mary's 24-7 W Gonzaga, W@Pepperdine,
39) Mississippi State 20-8 W@Xavier, W@VaTech, W Florida
40) George Washington 18-6 W Michigan State, W Maryland, W@Temple, W@Dayton
#11 Seeds
41) Wichita State 20-7 W@Providence, W Southern Illinois
42) Minnesota 20-9, 10-6 B10 W Wisconsin, Split with IU
43) UTEP 21-7 W@Princeton, W@Arizona State, W@Nevada
44) Iowa State 15-10 W@Kansas, W@Texas, W Oklahoma, W Texas Tech,
#12 Seeds
45) West Virginia 18-8 W@LSU, W GW, W@NCST, W@Pitt, W Pitt,
47) Buffalo 18-7 NonConf 8-1 only loss at UCONN W@Penn State W@Fresno St

Other bubble teams:
Virginia Tech 14-11, 7-7 in ACC W@Georgia Tech, W Duke, W@Miami, W Miami
Miami Fl 16-10, 7-8 in ACC W@Florida, W Maryland
Creighton 20-10 W@Mizzou, W@OhioSt, W@Xavier,
Utah State 21-7 W@Northwestern, W Utah
Houston 18-10 W Louisville, W@LSU, W Mizzou
Kent State 18-10 W@Florida St, W@Creighton
Memphis 17-12 W@Louisville, W Marquette, W DePaul
Vanderbilt 17-11 W Alabama
Indiana 15-13 W Wisconsin, W MSU

If any of these bubble teams win their conference tourneys, the teams ahead of them in their conferences will get an at-large bid... especially Pacific in the Big West, Southern Illinois in the MVC and Miami of Ohio in the MAC.

Now looking at all of that... If IU only wins against NW, but loses to Wisconsin and Minny in the B10 tourney, Minny gets to 21 wins and will have beaten IU twice. With a couple of upsets in conference tournaments, some of the bubble teams will get in via their tourney win and the conference favorites will get in as at-large teams. Factor in a couple of conference wins for some of the bubble teams and no way does IU get in with just one more win. NIT here IU comes.

Now if IU were to win at Wisconsin and beat NW, then beat Minny in the B10 Tourney, they are a lock at 17-13 with 3 quality wins. If they win at Wisconsin and beat NW, but lose their first round B10 Tourney game, they may get in, but there will be some sweating on Selection Sunday.